The useful regulatory question is not which countries are “opening” or “closing,” but what legal status applies now, what date changes it, and which parts remain conditional.
2027 outlook: Finland and New Zealand have enacted transitions with concrete 2027 milestones. Ireland is still phasing licence categories. Brazil is the highest-uncertainty case after a September 2026 provisional measure abruptly prohibited fixed-odds betting and online games nationwide.
Regulatory status must be separated into four states
For an outlook, “legal change” is too broad. THEMP separates enacted law with a future effective date, licensing already open before market launch, active transition rules, and proposals or provisional measures that can still change. That prevents a planned regime from being presented as if it were already operational.
Finland: licensed competition begins 1 July 2027
Finland’s reform is the clearest 2027 structural change in Europe. The Finnish Government says the new Gambling Act opens betting, online slots, online casino games and online bingo to competition under licensing, with most provisions entering into force on 1 July 2027. Veikkaus retains monopoly areas including lottery-type games and physical slots/casino games.
Applications for gambling licences opened to the National Police Board in March 2026. The police state that licences can be granted before launch but cannot take effect before 1 July 2027. From that date, licensing and supervision shift to the Finnish Supervisory Agency. Gambling-software licensing is scheduled for a later stage from July 2028.
1 Mar 2026
Licence application window opens during the transition.
1 Jul 2027
Licensed online casino and betting competition can begin; supervisory responsibility transfers.
1 Jul 2028
Separate gambling-software licensing requirement begins.
New Zealand: the licensing process is already in motion
New Zealand’s Online Casino Gambling Act 2026 is in force. The Department of Internal Affairs says up to 15 licences will be available, with an auction held on 29 September 2026 and licence applications opening in October. From 1 December 2026, providers that have not applied must cease offering online casino gambling to New Zealand customers; applicants can operate under a transitional exemption while decisions are made.
DIA expects licences to begin being issued in early 2027 and the licensed system to be fully operational during 2027. This is a controlled transition rather than an overnight opening: advertising remains restricted during the transitional period, and supporting regulations cover harm minimisation, consumer protection, advertising and fees.
Ireland: the regulator is live, but licensing remains phased
Ireland’s Gambling Regulatory Authority began accepting remote betting, remote betting intermediary and in-person betting applications in February 2026. The government’s commencement order enables remote betting licences to replace the old framework from 1 July 2026 and in-person betting licences from 1 December 2026.
Gaming is less settled. GRAI states that licence categories are being opened in phases and that business-to-business licensing is not expected among the first phases. For a casino-industry outlook, the correct 2027 question is therefore not “Ireland is fully licensed” but which remote gaming and supplier licence categories have actually commenced by the relevant date.
Brazil: the biggest status change is also the least stable
Brazil entered 2026 with a federal authorization regime for fixed-odds betting and online games. That changed on 25 September 2026 when Provisional Measure 1,394 prohibited the exploitation, offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting nationwide, including virtual online-game events. The official text states that the measure entered into force on publication.
Because this is a provisional measure, the 2027 position depends on the legislative process and any subsequent acts. THEMP therefore treats Brazil as a live legal-status watch, not as a settled long-term prohibition or a continuation of the earlier licensed regime. Any 2027 forecast written without acknowledging the September measure is already stale.
| Jurisdiction | Status on 5 Oct 2026 | 2027 hinge | Evidence confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | Enacted transition; applications open | Licensed market launches 1 Jul 2027 | High |
| New Zealand | Act in force; auction/applications underway | Licence issuance and full regime during 2027 | High |
| Ireland | Betting licensing operational; gaming phased | Timing of remote gaming/B2B phases | Moderate |
| Brazil | Provisional measure prohibits fixed-odds betting/online games | Legislative fate and implementation | Moderate / changing |
What operators and suppliers should monitor
- Finland: licence decisions, marketing rules, technical requirements and preparation for the 2028 software-licence layer.
- New Zealand: auction winners, licence decisions, exemption status and final operational guidance.
- Ireland: commencement dates for remote gaming and B2B licences rather than relying on older consultation timelines.
- Brazil: every subsequent act affecting MP 1,394, authorization wind-down and enforcement.
Why this outlook does not predict policy outcomes
Regulation is a high-transfer-risk topic. A consultation, government intention or draft timetable is not equivalent to enacted law. Even enacted transitional law can be amended. The report therefore states the legal status and next known trigger instead of assigning probabilities to political outcomes without evidence.
Method used by THEMP
Primary legislation, government departments and regulators are the first evidence layer. Trade press is not needed to establish status where an official source exists. Every jurisdiction entry records the observation date, current legal state, next trigger and the point at which the statement should be reviewed.
External sources are cited for provenance. THEMP’s comparisons, scoring and interpretation are editorial analysis and are not claims made by the cited organizations.